VS
We are at least a year away. But we are there already. Believe it or
not, this year, 2014, is the election year. To be sure, the ballot for
presidential, legislative and most gubernatorial elections will not be
cast until February 2015. But the election heat is already upon us, so
pervasive, so intense, and so thick you can slice it with a knife. And
it will only get worse, not better.
Hardly a day passes now without frontal and proxy confrontations
between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All
Progressives Congress (APC), the leading opposition party. These
confrontations come through accusations and counter-accusations,
defections and counter-defections, threats and counter-threats, boasts
and counter-boasts etc. The two parties are having a vicious go at each
other, the like of which we have not seen in recent times. And there
won’t be any let off. So, brace yourself.
Perhaps, this is inevitable. Since 1998/1999, we have never approached a
general election in such a heightened state. With the possibility of a
first-time defeat staring it rudely in the face, the ruling party is
giving it its all, definitely not waiting to be steamrolled. And
fancying itself to be within touching distance of history, the
opposition is not willing to take prisoners either. It is this push-pull
dynamics, the constant attempts to gain advantage over and undermine
the other, that has blanketed the polity with a heat-wave that will
possibly linger beyond February 2015.
Even if APC’s early promise is not immediately fulfilled, its dramatic
entry has already changed the temper of the game. The possibility of
alternation of power, without which a multi-party democracy is all but a
sham, appears more realistic now with the emergence of a strong
opposition. This has the potential of further deepening our democracy by
expanding choice, increasing competition, and providing incentive for
elected officials to perform. Also, the emergence of two strong parties
across the religious and geographical divide, if well managed, could
diminish the negative use to which religion and ethnicity are routinely
put in our politics.
But this same dramatic arrival, combined with the equally dramatic
response it has elicited, has also brought forward the election year.
Everything is now political, and politics is now everything. Governance,
sadly, has taken the back-seat. We have thus prematurely entered the
lame-duck zone. Show-boating will be prioritised ahead of difficult but
necessary reforms. And projects that will seduce the voters and swell
the war chest will be favoured over the ones that will make real and
lasting impact.
Worse could happen, unfortunately. The spirited contest between the two
parties is already amplifying tension in an ordinarily brittle polity.
Muds are freely thrown, fiery words freely exchanged, and violence
appears only a spit-distance away. A recent discussion in the House of
Representatives predictably degenerated into a row. When the passion
eventually spills into the streets and other arenas where there are no
rules and gavels, the situation could get uglier. It is hoped that the
electoral umpire and the security agencies are ready for this and are
prepared, in a non-partisan way, to force the actors to play by the
rules.
While we brace ourselves for the next 12 months, it is important to
back up a little. How did we get to this moment of intense competition? A
time was when Nigeria could pass for a one-party state. Even with close
to 50 registered parties, PDP controlled not only the presidency, but
also more than two-thirds of the states, and near absolute majority in
the National Assembly. Scholars of democracy have names for that
dysfunctional state, ranging from multi-party democracy with a dominant
party, feckless pluralism to pseudo-democracy.
At its glorious height, PDP controlled 28 out of the 36 states. That
was almost 80 per cent of the states. Now, it is barely hanging onto
only half of the states, with a slim majority in the Senate, and a
seriously threatened standing in the House. And it could get worse. So,
how do we explain PDP’s tumble from Mt. Olympus? An oft-repeated account
puts it all down to the politics of 2011 and 2015. Even if that is
true, the issues are much deeper, for the unraveling of PDP had been
long in coming.
A big chunk of the puzzle issue lies in the origin. PDP was conceived
as a big tent, creatively symbolised by the green-white-red umbrella, a
party strong enough to withstand even the military. This outlook gave it
strength, earning it the first slot for registration in 1998 and easy
victory in the 1999 elections with 21 states (All Peoples Party won nine
and Alliance for Democracy won six), and the presidency to boot. But
its strength also became a weakness. The truth is that PDP has never
been a party in the strictest sense. It is a rally, a collection of
different tendencies, a mere but effective platform for winning
elections.